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04/09/2009 - Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mark Recchi scored two goals, including the game-winner in overtime, and dished out two assists, as the Boston Bruins outlasted the Montreal Canadiens, 5-4, in a battle between Northeast Division rivals at TD Banknorth Garden.
Despite the loss, Montreal secured a playoff spot. The Canadiens needed just one point coming into the tilt to secure a trip to their second straight postseason. By forcing overtime on Thursday, Montreal did just that.
Patrice Bergeron stole the puck at the Montreal blue line and made his way toward the net. He found an open Recchi in front of the net with a beautiful pass. Recchi chipped the disc into an empty half of the net with 2:18 left in OT for the win.
Boston, which has already clinched the top-seed in the Eastern Conference, won the season series with the Canadiens, 5-0-1. The Bruins won their first season series with Montreal since 2003-2004.
This was Boston's final home game of the regular season. The Bruins will close their schedule with road tests against Buffalo and the New York Islanders.
Zdeno Chara, Bergeron, and Phil Kessel also lit the lamp for the Bruins, who bounced back from a loss to Ottawa on Tuesday. Bergeron added two helpers and Chara one. Tim Thomas stopped 35 shots to pick up his 35th win of the year.
Matt D'Agostini scored twice, while Alex Kovalev and Mathieu Schneider scored once for the Canadiens, who have dropped three in a row. Carey Price turned aside 28 shots in the loss.
Montreal (93 points) is tied with the Rangers for the final two spots in the East. The Rangers beat Philadelphia on Thursday.
Montreal ends the regular season at Pittsburgh on Saturday.
Trailing 4-3, Boston tied the game at four on a power-play goal from Chara at the 5:27 mark of the third period. Chara lifted a backhander top shelf after collecting a rebound in front of the net.
The Canadiens were given a golden opportunity when Steve Montador was whistled for roughing with 1:01 to play. Montreal failed to capitalize on their power play that extended into overtime.
The Bruins drew first blood just 2:02 into the tilt on a goal from Bergeron. Matt Hunwick carried the puck into the Montreal zone and hit Recchi with a cross-ice pass in front of the net. Recchi quickly dumped a pass to Bergeron, who fired a shot into an open right side of the net.
Kovalev scored a power-play goal just 1:25 into the second frame to tie the game at one. Mathieu Dandenault hit Kovalev with a pass at the right circle, and Kovalev fired a shot from the bottom of the right circle to beat Thomas glove side.
Kessel lit the lamp for the 33rd time this season at the 3:12 mark to give Boston a 2-1 edge. Kessel's shot from the right circle beat Price top shelf. A power-play goal from Recchi just over two minutes later extended the Bruins' margin to 3-1, but Montreal came roaring back.
The Canadiens cut the gap to 3-2 on a power-play goal from D'Agostini with 12:33 to go in the second. Schneider deadlocked the contest at three with 9:32 left.
D'Agostini lit the lamp with 3:07 remaining in the second to give the Canadiens their first lead of the game. D'Agostini won the puck at his own blue line and charged down the left side of the ice before beating Thomas stick side.
Game Notes
There was a combined total of 76 penalty minutes in the game...Boston went 2- for-4 on the power play, while Montreal went 3-for-7...The Bruins recalled forward Vladimir Sobotka from Providence (AHL) on Thursday...Boston improved to 29-6-6 at home.
<< Capitals double-up Lightning
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brooks Laich scored twice and Mike Green
registered a goal and two assists as the Washington Capitals held on to edge
the Tampa Bay Lightning, 4-2, at St. Pete Times Forum.
David Steckel also tallied
<< Lundqvist helps Rangers clinch playoff spot, down Flyers
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Henrik Lundqvist stood tall down the stretch
and finished with 37 saves to help the New York Rangers clinch a playoff spot
for the fourth straight year with a 2-1 victory over Philadelphia at
Madison
<< Molina helps Giants crush Brewers
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bengie Molina drove in four runs in San
Francisco's 7-1 thumping of Milwaukee -- a game overshadowed when a rocket off
the bat of the Brewers' Mike Cameron caught Giants pitcher Joe Martinez in the
head du
<< Buffalo halts Carolina's nine-game win streak
Raleigh, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Pominville scored twice as the Buffalo
Sabres routed the Hurricanes, 5-1, ending Carolina's nine-game winning streak.
Matt Ellis, Jochen Hecht and Derek Roy also tallied for the Sabres, who were
comi
Blazers forward Webster done for the season >>
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Portland forward Martell Webster will miss
the remainder of the season after re-aggravating a left foot ailment.
Webster had surgery October 9, 2008 to repair a stress fracture, and after
being sideli
Devils clinch Atlantic in shootout win over Senators >>
Ottawa, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brendan Shanahan scored the shootout winner, and
the New Jersey Devils wrapped up the Atlantic Division title in a 3-2 win
against the Ottawa Senators at Scotiabank Place.
The Devils needed just a point to
Lakers' Bynum returns to action >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andrew Bynum is back, and not a second
too soon for the Lakers as the playoffs near.
Bynum stepped foot onto the floor in game action during the first quarter of
Los Angeles' game against Denver on
Bulls draw closer to playoffs with thumping of Philadelphia >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tyrus Thomas and Ben Gordon each scored 24
points as Chicago inched closer to a playoff berth with a 113-99 victory over
slumping Philadelphia.
Derrick Rose added 16 points and eight assists, Brad Mille
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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In terms of sports wagering, the NFL is "the most popular game in town." The explanation behind that is easy.
It is called the "pointspread."
Many years ago, NFL games, as well as the more popular college games, used straight odds as a vehicle for betting. For example, if the Bears were playing the Giants, and it shaped up as a competitive contest, the Bears might be, say, a 7/5 favorite. If they were playing an also-ran, it might be 10/1. Well, there is a point where a line becomes prohibitive, as far as betting the favorite. And who would waste money betting an underdog that has virtually no chance? Such a setup did not contribute to promoting betting action.
But in modern sports betting, a "pointspread" is used.
A NFL pointspreads are exactly that, a pre-established point difference between the two sides that will, for all intents and purposes, create a handicap that evens things out, and in doing so, produces comparable wagering activity on both sides of that proposition. So in lieu of a odds figure in which to bet the team to win outright, the Bears might be a three-point favorite over the New York Giants, and a 17-point favorite over the also-ran. Now that the team that is the underdog can "get" points, there can be equal action on both sides.
In sportsbooks, this is usually done with efficiency by charging the losing bettors 10% extra - in effect, bettors are laying 11/10 on those games. So they are actually betting $110 to win $100. If they lose, they pay the "vig." If they win, they simply collect.
The establishment of the pointspread as the corner stone around which team sports like football can be wagered upon was truly what brought gridiron betting into the stratosphere for online football betting .
Don't believe it? Just take a look at what happens around the Super Bowl.
Stay with us here as we take you through the best in NFL action on a consistent basis, with advice columns as well as handicapping selections. If you're looking for college football betting, that's in our NCAA section, which you can reach by clicking here. And if you're looking for a different kind of football, such as the Canadian Football League, which we'll deal with occasionally, or the Arena Football League, which we really like, you can find it in our Miscellaneous section by clicking
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting odds .
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