British Open Second Round News & Notes

Golf Betting Lines

07/21/2007 - Carnoustie, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It has been quite a golfing week for Spain.

On Monday, Seve Ballesteros, a three-time champion, and Spain's greatest golfer in history, announced his retirement from competitive golf. He had been hampered for years by a bad back, but his statement at Carnoustie brought an end to an era in Spanish golf.

Then, one day later, Jose Maria Olazabal, a two-time Masters winner and Ballesteros' long-time Ryder Cup partner, withdrew from the British Open Championship with a knee injury

Things did not look good for Spanish golf.

By Friday afternoon, that country became the toast of Scotland.

Sergio Garcia, who recently re-formed the Spanish Armada with Olazabal at last year's Ryder Cup, shot a wonderful 65 in round one, then put together a steady 71 on Friday to sit atop the leaderboard.

Just below him on the leaderboard, three shots back is Miguel Angel Jimenez. "The Mechanic" nearly aced the 16th hole on Friday and hit the best approach of the week at Carnoustie's closing hole. Unfortunately, Jimenez missed the six-footer for birdie, but is in at minus-three.

As expected, the "younger" generation gave thanks to Ballesteros.

"For me when I look at myself and I believe so many players think the same thing," said Jimenez. "We feel proud for what he did for us."

If it was going to be a "Win one for Seve Week," the pressure should be on Garcia and Jimenez. They are the only Spaniards left in the field after Olazabal withdrew.

"The odds are not huge," Garcia admitted after his opening round. "It would be amazing. It would be something out of, how do you call it, a fairy tale or something like that."

OTHER FORMS OF ENHANCERS

In the wake of Gary Player's bizarre accusation on Wednesday that he knows at least one player in the world on some form of steroids, most players have come out swinging.

But on Friday, Jim Furyk, who is tied for fifth place after a pair of 70s, admitted that some elements most athletes don't employ might have aided in his strong play this week.

"My wife and I were looking for a place to eat last night," said Furyk. "We ended up grabbing a couple of pizzas...and on our way carrying them back to the hotel we saw Justin Leonard, Scott Verplank and a couple of the other large American contingent and they talked us into one pint up there at the Kinloch."

Maybe the pizza and beer are helping Furyk, the No. 3 player in the world, but last year is what got him started. After missing five straight cuts at the British Open, he took fourth place at Royal Liverpool.

With conditions expected to get even windier over the weekend, Furyk likes his chances. He actually likes them just fine right now.

"If the weather keeps up the way it is right now, I'm not ill-willing anyone like that, but if the weather keeps up the way it is, I should be within respectable distance of the leaders," he said.

AMATEUR RECAP

In case you forgot, 18-year-old amateur Rory McIlroy went through Thursday's first round as the only player in the field without a bogey.

He more than made up for that on Friday.

McIlroy collected two birdies, a double-bogey and five bogeys en route to a five-over 76 and a share of 31st place at two-over-par 144.

"It was a bit of a struggle, but I managed to steady the ship on the last six holes and played that in level par which is always good on a course like this," said McIlroy. "I'm just happy to be here for the weekend."

McIlroy basically has a free weekend among amateurs. The Silver Medal is his since no other amateur made the cut, but one, with perhaps a more compelling story gave it his all.

Drew Weaver, the British Amateur Champion, only managed a one-over 72 on Friday and missed the cut at plus-six. He had 20 feet for birdie on the last with a chance to get to five-over. There was an outside chance the cut would fall to plus-five, but it hardly mattered as Weaver missed the putt.

This has been a remarkable week for Weaver. He will be a junior at Virginia Tech and was only a few 100 yards away from the tragedy in April.

"I have had a fantastic week," said Weaver. "I had a wonderful time, but it's a tough feeling to have come so close to making the cut. I played my heart out today, and it's a tough realization that I won't be playing through the weekend".

* The group of leader Sergio Garcia, Johan Edfors and Chad Campbell were put on the clock for slow play on the 14th hole. They were not assessed any penalty.

* If Garcia wins this event, he will be the first Spaniard since Seve Ballesteros in 1988 and the first European to win a major of any kind since Paul Lawrie here in 1999. He has never held a 36-hole lead in a major championship.

* The weather is supposed to get significantly worse on the weekend. Rain is forecast, although the amount predicted has fluctuated throughout Friday. The wind is supposed to pick up on Saturday.

* John Daly and Achi Sato both shared the lead during Thursday's first round, but both missed the cut.

* Daly, Justin Leonard, Nick Faldo, Todd Hamilton, Tony Jacklin and Paul Lawrie, who won the last British Open Championship at Carnoustie in 1999, were the former champions who missed the cut.

* Paul McGinley was alone in second place after Thursday's first round, but struggled to a four-over 75 on Friday. He is tied for 13th place at even-par 142.

* The easiest hole for round two was the par-five 14th with an average of 4.61. The most difficult hole on Friday was once again the par-four 18th with an average of 4.71.

* The 14th has been the easiest for the week with a 4.65 average. The 18th has played harder than the par-five 14th with an average of 4.72.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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