17th-ranked Cougars set to pounce on Mustangs

NCAA Football Betting Lines

10/21/2009 - Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 17th-ranked Houston Cougars are set to play their first home game in nearly a month, as they square off against the SMU Mustangs in Conference USA action this weekend at Robertson Stadium.

The Cougars wrapped up a three-game road trip over the weekend, using a big second half to come away with a 44-16 victory over Tulane on Saturday.

"You know, I'm proud of them," said head coach Kevin Sumlin of his team's performance after the intermission. "I thought they came out and created their own energy. They moved the ball offensively to score, stopped them on defense, and blocked a punt. Those are the kind of things that on the road, you couldn't have a better series of events to start the second half."

It was the second win in a row for the Cougars, who suffered their lone loss at Texas-El Paso (58-41) to begin the road trip. Now at 5-1, Houston is off to its best start since 2003 and the team is playing at home for the first time since clipping Texas Tech (29-28) in a thriller back on September 26th.

As for the Mustangs, they have dropped three of their last four games following a 2-0 start to the season. Two of those losses have come in overtime, including a 38-35 setback to Navy this past weekend.

"There's no formula to it," head coach June Jones said about winning overtime games. "You just have to do it. You have to win."

SMU is now 1-10 all-time in overtime games and the two extra-session losses could prove costly for a program that is looking for its first bowl bid since 1984. Still, the Mustangs bring a 2-0 league record to his game and one of those victories came over East Carolina (28-21), the defending C-USA champions.

With respect to the all-time series, the Cougars hold a 14-9-1 edge against SMU and that includes a 44-38 triumph in last season's meeting.

Bo Levi Mitchell's 10-yard touchdown pass to Aldrick Robinson with 1:35 to go forced overtime, but the Mustangs missed a field goal on their possession in the extra-period and Navy's Joe Buckley hit a 24-yarder to give the Midshipmen a 38-35 win this past weekend. It was a disappointing finish for SMU, which gained 376 total yards, right on its season average of 365.0 ypg.

Unlike prior games however, the Ponies had success on the ground and rushed for 176 yards, more than double their average of 84.2 ypg. Shawnbrey McNeal recorded his second 100-yard game of the season and first against a BCS program, toting 15 times for 131 yards. The Mustangs don't run a whole lot, but when given the chance, McNeal has proven capable with 500 yards on the season.

The Mustangs like to spread the field on offense and let Mitchell pick apart opposing defenses. The second-year quarterback though, has had issues with mistakes and has already thrown 10 picks after leading the nation with 23 in 2008. Mitchell, however, is still average 280.8 ypg through the air and against Navy he threw for 200 yards and a score, although he was just 19-of-41 on pass attempts.

Emmanuel Sanders is the primary threat to opposing secondary's and he continues to churn out the numbers, leading SMU with 53 catches for 581 yards and a pair of scores.

After just five games, SMU's defense is noticeably better than a year ago, but the unit still needs to improve on the 393.0 total ypg it is surrendering. The defense though, has compensated for some of the surrendered yards by forcing 20 turnovers, including 13 interceptions.

Last weekend, the Ponies were forced to face Navy's option attack and the defense was shredded for 331 yards and five scores on the ground. The defense did score on a fumble return by Sterling Moore and the group even forced five punts, but it just wasn't enough in the end.

"We played good enough to win defensively," said coach Jones. "If you had told me we could have made them punt five times, I would have thought we'd won."

Chase Kennemer paced the defense with 11 tackles, as he continues to top the roster in stops, with 67 for the year.

Offensively, there are very few teams that can match the explosiveness that Houston brings to the field each week, as the Cougars are generating 40.8 ppg behind a whopping 560.3 total ypg. A majority of the success is attributed to a passing attack that is led by Case Keenum, who has been mentioned as a Heisman Trophy candidate. The efficient quarterback has completed 70.1 percent of his pass attempts for 2,501 yards, with 19 touchdowns against just four interceptions. Last weekend, Keenum threw for 371 yards and two touchdowns on 33-of-46 tosses in another workmen like effort.

"We came out a little mellow in the first half," said Keenum, whose team was up just 9-6 at the break. "We weren't executing in the red zone like we needed to."

Keenum rallied the troops after the intermission and led Houston to 35 second- half points on his way to a sixth straight 300-yard passing performance this season.

James Cleveland caught one of Keenum's touchdown passes last weekend and he has emerged as a threat each week, leading the team with 45 catches and six touchdowns. Tyron Carrier (483 yards) and Patrick Edwards (381) are two other weapons Keenum utilizes on a weekly basis.

Bryce Beall is the team's top option in the backfield and he had 62 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries against Tulane. The versatile Beall has made the most of his rushing attempts this season, going for 437 yards, and he is also part of the passing game, catching 21 balls.

The Cougars certainly need to tighten up things on defense, even if the offense is scoring at such high rate and quick pace. The unit is currently surrendering a way to high 448.2 total ypg and that includes 222.7 ypg on the ground. The defense has managed to recover 10 fumbles, but its nine sacks and four picks are two areas in need of improvement.

Last weekend, Houston bent, but it never broke and gave up just 16 points to Tulane despite allowing 437 total yards, including 187 rushing. The Cougars came up with one interception and two sacks and that helped the defense keep Tulane out of the end zone all but once.

Marcus McGraw helped limit Tulane by making 10 stops and he has been a tackling machine this season, with a team-high 70 to his credit.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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